Humanity’s Energy Destiny – Satyajit Das

What is humanity's energy destiny? We can’t keep burning fossil fuels at the rate we are doing so currently, but can we really replace them and not see living standards across the globe drop markedly.

This is a synopsis of some of the many issues that Satyajit Das, discussed with Phil Clark on ABC Nightlife this month, which covered:

• how current and emerging changes in energy markets are already having implications for society in the broadest sense;

• the vital role of energy in modern society and the challenges of moving from fossil fuels to renewables, including Energy Return on Energy Invested (EROEI) and how it affects the feasibility of renewable energy versus fossil fuels; and

• the limitations of renewables, especially in areas like heavy transportation and industry.

I think that this comment made by Das helps to put the huge issues we’re facing into context:

“I think Captain James Scott* on the Starship Enterprise, was correct when he said to Captain Kirk, you can't change the basic structure of physics and chemistry. And I think that's what we struggling with. And so, even if we manage to progress further down electrification, we need to change all of those processes to get a pathway to decarbonisation.”

The imperative, of course, is that we have to cease burning fossil fuels.

It was a sobering and compelling broadcast – here’s what stood out for me:

• Fossil fuels and our energy requirements
  Fossil fuels, which now make up about 80% of our energy, will not decline that significantly in the short run. While renewables generate electricity (making up ~ 20% of the total energy mix), electricity is not appropriate for certain types of industry and certain types of transportation.
  
  So, to replace fossil fuels for certain types of applications, you need to actually change the entire industrial structure of our civilization. For example, cement and steel - which we depend on, will have to be made in different ways. We’re not at the stage in our scientific development where that’s either entirely feasible or, even if it's feasible, it's not feasible on a cost effective basis.
  

• What does the energy transition (ET) mean?
  It's fashionable to talk about the energy transition as though it's just a simple matter of moving away from fossil fuels to renewables. However, energy transition actually means a major structural shift in our energy systems. Moreover, it seems to mean many and different things to many people.
  
  Nonetheless, there’s a difference between how the term ET is used by people who know – scientists - and policymakers. To a scientist, it's a very complicated process of rejigging your entire energy structure. To a politician, it's a slogan!

• ET historically and our current timeframe
  This isn’t the first time in human history that we've undergone an energy transition. Until the 1880’s, we got almost all of our energy from fossil and biofuels, like coal and wood. The global transition away from biofuels to oil (coal, sadly, is still a mainstay) to oil took between 50 and 75 years. This time around, we're trying to do it much, much faster:

• We want to do this in 10-15 years;

• It’s a very different transition – the scale is unprecedented, as we are trying to rearrange energy requirements for 8 billion people; and

• All of our previous energy transitions have moved from less energy dense and efficient to more energy dense and efficient sources of energy, which is not the case today.

• Cost factors
  The cost of energy will go up because we now have environmental and safety controls which simply didn’t exist when oil exploration and use started, when there were very limited regulatory structures. And, this time around, we need to consider the costs of sourcing energy and EROEI.

• EROEI
  ERoEI – Energy Returned on Energy Invested - describes the ratio of the useable amount of energy that you can deliver from some resource relative to the amount of energy you have to put in. For example, to extract oil or gas requires energy to extract it, energy to transport it, energy to process it and still more energy to convert it into something else.
  
  The problem for us as a civilization is that fossil fuel and things like nuclear energy, for instance, have massive ERoEI’s, compared to solar or wind renewables.

• Stranded assets
  Probably 10 to 15% of global wealth is tied up in global fossil fuel assets, which will have a substantial reduction in value with ET. Super and pension funds have shares and own debts in these assets.

  So what do we do to avoid a wealth transfer or a wealth loss of major proportions?

• Supply and Demand

  There are 2 parts to the energy debate - it’s the supply and demand. While we think about the supply side in terms of the climate, there’s also the issue of limited fossil fuel resources.

If we have supply constraints, maybe we should be thinking about adjusting our demand. However, if we do that, our lifestyles, living standards, and economic activity would have to be drastically retrenched. And that is not something that anybody wants to contemplate in any shape or form.

Nonetheless, we do need to look at how we cut back energy use per capita. Trouble is, nobody actually wants to talk about that.

These are enormous and complex issues for us to come to terms with, and that we have to manage.

You can read Sanjadit Das’ analyses of the energy transition at nakedcapitalism.com here.

Here’s the link to the ABC broadcast.

*Correction: Please note Satyajit Das is clearly referring to Montgomery Scott (aka Scotty), the USS Enterprise’s Chief Engineering Officer. There is no Captain James Scott. Captain James Tiberius Kirk is the Captain of the Enterprise.

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